This study examines the impact of Poland’s ‘2% Safe Mortgage’ policy on dwelling price inflation in both the primary and secondary markets. Using quarterly data from Q2 2011 to Q4 2024 for the seven largest cities in Poland and a VAR model with forecast scenarios, the analysis finds that the policy had a measurable effect on price dynamics. In the primary market, the credit shock led to an additional increase in dwelling price inflation of approximately 6.7 percentage points by the third quarter. In the secondary market, the effect was stronger, reaching around 7.4 percentage points compared to a no-policy scenario. A significant share of price growth was also driven by indirect factors, including expectations of further increases. The analysis shows the importance of well-designed government policy in shaping housing market outcomes and mitigating unintended price pressures.
1 204,26 kB)| Tweet |
